In their preview of the FOMC, JPM's rates traders have a neutral stance heading into the Fed as "the Rates market is pricing in 200bps of hikes over the next 4 Fed meetings and valuations are looking cheap.
We already did not one but two lengthy FOMC preview (the first one is what the Fed will do, the second one is why what the Fed will do may be even more hawkish than most expect), so we won't waste readers time with even more analysis of what the market expects things to get - below we show the latest rate hike odds chart indicating 100%+ odds of a 50bps raise (2 rate hikes) today, as well as.
dove dovish centrist hawkish hawk Jerome Powell Richard Clarida John Williams Lael Brainard Randal Quarles Eric Rosengren Charles Evans Loretta Mester Raphael Bostic Robert Kaplan James Bullard Mary Daly Neel Kashkari Esther George Patrick Harker Thomas Barkin Michelle Bowman William Dudley* John Williams* Favors more stimulus Favors less.
Little react to rise in weekly claims (+19k to 200Kk), modest drop in continuing claims (-0.019M to 1.384M), today's sell-off more in rates and stocks simply an unwind of the view the Fed is not less hawkish for choosing to not hike 75bs or provide guidance to that effect.
In short, and despite talking hawkish, the SRF is open proof that the Fed is fully dovish when it comes to cooing over Mr. Market. In plain-speak, when push comes to shove, the FOMC favors Wall Street over Main Steet—always has, always will. Why? The Market is the Thing
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